Need advice on the prospect of accepting to a role as a Financial Analyst at a startup. Would be leaving a stable consulting firm and accepting less cash-based compensation. Details within

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Current Role: Project Manager, 24 (~2 YOE). Client exposure is increasing, relevant experience working with senior leadership at public companies. Salary is $93K, target bonus is slightly above 50% of base (~$54K), profit sharing to retirement is ~$20K. Total compensation is $160K-$170K.

Offer Role: Financial Analyst working at a social media-based startup with rapidly increasing valuation. Base salary is $85-90K. Target bonus is 5% of bonus pool, which is 6% of revenue (i.e., bonus would be $30K at $10MM revenue). Half of the bonus is paid in equity (RSUs) at a $4MM company valuation; acquisition value of comparable companies is typically 1-to-1 with annual revenue, so equity value at $10MM revenue would be 2.5x its stated value. Total compensation is variable based on revenue. At $10MM revenue would be ~$140K, at $15MM would be ~$215K.

How much do you believe in the startups ability to generate those revenue numbers? What do you have to substantiate those views? Is the risk in some way measurable

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