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There is one thing stopping me. The yield curve uninverted in Sept 2024. If it holds true as a recession indicator 4-12 months later January/February would be the 5th/6th month we’d be right in the window. 2025 is the reset. This would also align with the shake up currently underway. We get back to growth in 2026. Business cycle starts over. And I’d prefer this scenario to stagnation in the jobs market. If this is the start we’d be looking at a 30-40% decline in stocks. Toward the end of the cycle we should see heavy job loss.
Hasn't the yield curve inverted multiple times since 2016. Yet here we are chugging along.