Related Posts
Additional Posts in The Real Estate Bowl
New to Fishbowl?
Download the Fishbowl app to
unlock all discussions on Fishbowl.
unlock all discussions on Fishbowl.
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Download the Fishbowl app to unlock all discussions on Fishbowl.
Copy and paste embed code on your site

Scan your QR code to download
Fishbowl app on your mobile

If this could be predicted, you could easily get rich just by betting on it
Buy now refinance later, it won’t get any higher than this.
Subject Expert
Probably lower than they are now.
How much depends on how badly and how quickly the economy tanks
Mentor
You’d have to calculate unemployment rate, future inflation and know the timeline. Based on the data now we have 2 cuts coming of 25bps in 2025. Which would put mortgages around 6.5%. Not enough data for 2026. We could assume the same as 2025, so 6% interest in 2026 is reasonable. If unemployment spikes it could go lower, faster. If inflation sky rockets it could go higher.
Mentor
Prediction markets (Kalshi or Polymarket) so based on all current data prediction markets are fairly accurate, but information changes and the odds adjust in response. I checked last night and a 3rd rate cut in 2025 is becoming more likely 25% chance. CME Fed watch tool relies on a couple data sources, futures contract, dot plot. Slightly different approach. Maybe the best approach is taking results from all three, average the prediction.
Let me ask my crystal ball and will get back to you
No, You can always refi. I bought about 1.5 years ago and refi'd just before the fed rate drop.
No cost refi? If not, how much of a rate reduction did you achieve?
No one here knows...
6
I guess 4.5%
Even if the Fed cuts rates the 10 year may not go down. It’s impossible to tell.
Hang on. Let me check my crystal ball…
Cuts + QE + new round of inflation in next 3 years is my guess so down a little and then up again after stimulus.