When will next biglaw raise happen? It’s been a long time and partners keep raising rates and making obscene profits while law school and living costs skyrocket.

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After the last raise I made this Reddit post with my prediction that we’d get one January 2026. That obviously didn’t happen, but the analysis still applies - we’re now overdue for one based on past patterns, so I think as time passes the chances it occurs go up and up from here.

In the two years since I made that post we’ve gotten special bonuses both times, and absent a crazy year like 2021 I doubt we’d get both those and a raise in the same year. So basically my updated prediction is we will either get special bonuses OR a raise (but both both), this year and every year until a raise occurs.

Note that the broader market conditions, the opinions of most partners and firms, none of that matters. What matters is the selfish interests of Milbank LLP and what a small group of their top partners think will benefit them. Thankfully, for years now, those partners have thought it advantageous to give raises and special bonuses frequently. Hopefully that continues and I’m not aware of any reason it wouldn’t.

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Actually they’ve mostly been in the summer - below are the dates I pieced together from old news articles:

6/6/2016
6/4/2018
6/10/21
1/20/22
11/17/23

There needs to be an increase in transactional work that drives competition and the need for retention incentives. It might happen when interest rates drop this summer after Trump replaces Powell with a new Fed Chair. If so, I think increase would be announced starting 2027.

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Wild that Milbank gaslit so many people into thinking comp is on the up and up with the "special bonus" meme that resulted in a flat total comp grid last year

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Would rather see rates stop getting raised / go down and keep the same pay. The pressure is insane. Know it won’t happen but still.

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The increased pressure to raise PPEP, keep up with inflation, etc is there regardless of rates. If rates didn’t go up, the pressure would instead be on hours. So be grateful that the firms are growing revenue with the method that doesn’t require more and more billables.

Do you think if rates stayed stagnant the partners would just let you chill? Look at how much worse ID associates have it than us with their dramatically lower rates.

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