$530k HHI, $250k cash on hand, $1.2M investments/retirement. Plan to buy $800-900k house as our first home, but thinking of the best approach given rates today. My thinking is that we (i) put $200k+ down and get a 5/1 ARM. (ii) put everything we save moving forward toward paying down the principal (after maximizing retirement accounts). Should be able to do $100k per year. (iii) If rates go down below 4.5ish % for 15 year fixed, refinance and stop aggressive payment. Thoughts on this approach?

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I think it is a good approach. You have plenty of cash and a very nice HHI. Rates will likely peak sometime next year but you never know. Maybe price the difference in 5 vs 10 year arm to see if the extra flexibility won’t cost much more.

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Great plan.

What’s your expected return on your investments? Getting 7% (or more) on an investment maybe a better use of capital than sinking more money into the principal of your mortgage. I can understand reducing the principal ahead of a refi, but if you invest now and that money grows in the next 3 to 4 years, you can always pull it out and pay down your mortgage prior to the refi. Even with taxes, if you think the market will bounce back by 10% to 15% in the next few years, that may be a much larger benefit in the grand scheme of things than paying down long term amortized debt.

Bingo. You’re basically only getting the gain of the difference between the ARM (probably a mid 6% number) and the final long term debt (probably low 4’s), vs. potential 10% or more growth in the same period of time. The compounding effect is why pre-paying your mortgage isn’t suggested by sophisticated investors. Get your money compounding as early as possible!

Where are you buying?

With the current real estate market, I’d have the seller cooperate with a 3-2-1 buy down then refinance when rates drop

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