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Hard to say without that hard offer. Think it also depends on how many people they're interviewing for the position
I would think it would depend on the role and number of applicants. Not sure there is one universal answer to this.
I agree and it definitely depends on these factors. Maybe if OP responds with some more details we can come up with some more specifics.
So let me be a bit more specific here, after the hiring manager gives a green light to recruiter to start the offer process, what's the chance of denial rate from Apple Finance group (for the initial ballpark # for comp) as well as the denial rate from official offer signing (the signature stamps from HM, director, SVP, etc.)?