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Coach
Pretty high
Coach
It's ironic you assume the effect has to be negative. If you want to talk probabilities, it's more probable to have positive effects on deal flow. With Venezuela and Iran being 2 less destabilizing forces in the world that were also all of China's oil, it actually can open up deal flow across the world and perhaps even lead to China opening up. Not saying this is the most likely scenario, but it's far more likely than sanctioned country in the middle east backed by nobody is going to be effecting global deal flow since oil is expensive this month.
Very valid point.
Mentor
This is why I’m leaving my already slow firm…
Mentor
Oh but the administration says gas prices will only be high for a couple of weeks!
Of course it will effect more
High. Global shipping feels inches away from being totally effed. Hope you like adding10 days to delivery for ships to go all the way around Southern Africa.
Coach
And there is no incentive for the two top dogs to end hostilities like zero. They are prob looking for ways to expand it. So this will get much worse before it gets better
Short-term thinking to believe this will cause a recession imo. The conflict and regime both will be over soon (relative to the two main prolonged GWOT conflicts). Something else to consider: if you think this conflict has the potential to turn into anything like Iraq or Afghanistan, just know it won’t (in addition to reading up on the regions and conflicts of course) — entirely different peoples and cultures. And for the love of god because the average westerner (or maybe just American?) seems to be really confused on the following point: Iranians aren’t Arabs lol.
Also, I’m pretty convinced that the average westerner (no hate on westerners duh - just something that I’ve observed way too many times in the past week) doesn’t quite understand the percentage of Iranians that *do not* want this regime lol; it’s kinda difficult to fight against or vote out a regime that, at minimum, literally shoots/hangs peaceful dissidents, which inevitably will happen when the people don’t have weapons to protect themselves against such brutality, regardless of the fact that the percentage of regime supporters is like 15-20% on a good day. It’s terrible.
Now that warheads keep dropping on the mullahs’ foreheads, you really think they can outlast this for a few more weeks? Months? No chance. The regime is donzo. It’s a wrap. Finito. Terminado. Tamoom shod.
Free Iran.
@A7 — no dogwhistles at all? Wtf are you talking about?? Let’s simply use your own words here: you just tried discounting the Iraq/Syria sectarian violence point by pointing out that much of it has been funded by the IRGC yes?
Well, the US funds has historically (very recently throughout the Middle East over the past uh 2 decades lol wake up) a lot of things abroad such as arming different groups fighting each other. Does that necessarily mean the US is the one engaged in the sectarian violence? No not at all. (At this point, I’m unsure if you fully understand what I mean by sectarian violence throughout the Arab world — a simple google search clears that up.)
I overstated the opposition to the regime? Do you get all your news and updates from the IRGC Twitter accounts? 😭
I didn’t even know what shah of sunset was lol. Had to google it. You can keep discounting people’s views, facts, and reality by accusing people of “casual racism” and “dog whistling” and swearing they must be X ethnic group or got a talking point from somewhere etc., but that’s nothing more than IRGC-level buffoonery.
Were you at Washington Square Park last Friday for Ayatollah Khamenei’s vigil by any chance? How was it?
FRED says that gas prices are at $3.01/gal as of last week, and that's the current number. Gas passed $3.01 in May of 2021 under Biden and stayed there until December of last year. Note: I think those are nominal dollars. How was your deal flow from 2021-25?
Coach
inflation is already here, we are already in the middle of a recession and ai seeks to replace all white collar workers. your concern should be whether the iran conflict leads to ww3
Coach
have fun with momdamis tax hikes
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Mentor
💯
Mentor
Yup. No more ME money freezing our AI boom. Also no more Asian money, since those economies will go into free fall.
Glad I live in NY where I can take the subway! Have fun Texas lawyers spending all that gas money driving from Katy TX to your offices lol
Mentor
Not in TX, but the difference in state/local income tax alone makes this comment funny
Outsourcing practice groups may see an uptick in work as companies cut costs.
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