If a recession happens, as it looks like we are upon one, how would firms decide who to fire? Would they look purely at hours and cut associates with the lowest hours? Should junior associates start saving money more aggressively now, (401k, HSA, IRA, brokerage) with the expectation that there might be future cuts?

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Juniors usually do not get cut first. It’ll be mid levels who aren’t performing, associates who are not on partner track, NEPs who aren’t doing well.

Cutting juniors has lasting effects—effects which are still felt today/remembered from a decade ago.

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Genuine question - why would juniors be cut last from that list? I would assume underperforming associates at all levels would be on the chopping block. I also know of many firms where associates are not profitable (due to usefulness, learning curve, rate, etc) until like year 3 or 4. Obviously would stunt the growth of the firm to strictly eliminate juniors, but why would an underperforming junior have greater job security than an underperforming mid level?

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Underperformers and many of the same people who have been on here in a seller’s market for associates bragging about their boundaries (some are okay but many haven’t been all that reasonable), expressing a willingness to leave their supervising partners and colleagues in a bad position (e.g., everyone else is stuck on the crappy doc review all weekend and these people say they just shut off their phone and say they are unavailable, since the partner could just do it herself), and the like.

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P1 what if you're underperforming by no fault of your own? I.e. accept every assignment, ask for more work, do a good job, but just don't get enough hours?

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Probably not just based on hours. But juniors (and associates with significant financial exposure, kids/mortgages) should definitely be saving aggressively in case of cuts.

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Most everyone on this board will only have experience with the GFC and COVID recessions , which were unique IMO in that certain big law practices were totally shutdown for months and/or there were fears they would be slow for years (securitization during the GFC, real estate during COVID).

If this recession is less dramatic than those 2, large scale layoffs are unlikely. Instead you’ll probably just see more people “pushed out” based on performance reviews than they would in normal economic conditions, which typically will include reaching target annual billable hours as a key component.

Juniors will very likely have greater job security than Senior Associates , MidLevels , Counsel, and Nonequity partners.

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Everyone should be saving money

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