Have an opportunity to get a 4.625% ARM 7 yr rate on a jumbo loan from a big bank for a new construction home. Should I take the ARM or try for a 30yr fixed which would be a bit higher (probably around 5%). Asking because I'm not confident long term rates are going below 4.5% or so for a very long time so it might be a risk even after 7 yrs that rates are the same or higher.

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Always fixed for me.

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I definitely would go with fixed. I got lucky and got a 2.99% rate two years ago. Jumbo is to unpredictable and I like to know what I am paying every month. With fix you only have to worry about taxes and insurance changing which affects the escrow.

Is this a construction loan?

No house is already constructed. So just a new home.

Those both sound like great rates right now, are you buying a bunch of points?

Nope. Got lucky at the most recent trough this year just before rates ticked upward again. Also in good financial standing so got the premium rates from big banks. Jumbos from banks are always lower than conforming loans.

I would strongly recommend 30yr fixed .5% isn’t worth the uncertainty for me

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