How close are we to a market bottom?

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Closer than we were two weeks ago. I'm not going to stop buying and bought a little extra on Friday.

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We’re definitely in a bear market and the average bottom in a bear market is -22%. If the bear market turns into a recession, meaning two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, then the average bottom in a recession is -47%. So all eyes on the June GDP report.

likehelpful

Recession ≠ 2 quarters of economic contraction FYI

funny
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Let me ask my magic genie

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Obviously OP is asking for opinions, the “crystal ball” and “genie” jokes are getting hella old lmao

likesmartfunny

I don’t have one what?

8 miles

funnylike

Ask stupid questions, get stupid answers…

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Based on the current real yield and avg expected risk premium, the S&P500 is "rationale" at ~3,450.

But by that calc, we haven't been rationale since the Great Recession.

Soo...for me, I am buying a set allocation of stocks and bonds each quarter, but will buy VOO hand over fist if the S&P is less than 3,450 (all else equal).

likehelpful

Lol...well played.

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An inside source at the government told me the bottom will be on June 9th at just after 4:19PM

likesmarthelpfulfunny

Yes

funny

I think we're close because of that one person who panic sold for an 80k loss on Friday. Great bottom signal. Rally next week woohoo!

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20% downside is where I would consider the market to be just right. Could be worse if macro factors worsen domestically and overseas

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A good place to start is just understand how the E in the P/E ratio is calculated, look up CAPE, and know how a simple DCF works. That basically puts you in the right ballpark of valuing a public company. Of course can look at historical P/E too since these things usually have a strong reversion to mean.

🎢 this roller coaster isn’t close to over. Hold on for a wild 12-24 months.

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I thought it meant you need to work on spelling

funny

The bottom is in

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read that recessionary drops are 24% from peak on average, so it could be here, could go a little more. probably an excellent entry point with a long enough horizon

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Not even close

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Fun is just getting started fam 🫠

I think the bottom will be early next year 🫠

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If I knew that I wouldnt be working at Deloitte!

So close you can almost taste it.

Y’all can just send me your money now - I’ll save you the trouble of losing it slowly over time

I’d say we are close. Robinhood sent out the “don’t be alarmed” email a week ago. Once you get those, you know you’re at the bottom.

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Given short term rotation out of growth stocks, I’m confused on what to do. I think we still have some time before growth stocks bottom out, but do I sell?

I would consider myself a “long only” investor, but am unsure what to do given my lack of diversif

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