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You have to scrub harder then or ideally get a second set of eyes on it. a positive IRR with a moic < 1 is mathematically impossible. you could have a negative irr with a positive (but < 1) moic though
Feel for you since you sound pretty fried
Excel was just fucked. MoIC was actually negative. Lulz
More detail – also getting large positive cash flows in first few months from debt draws from facility upsizing due to EBITDA growth. But even when I reduce leverage to zero, unlevered MoIC is still negative and IRR is positive
None of us have your model in front of us but is the moic *negative* (lmao what?) or merely less than 1? There isn’t even enough to pay back lenders upon exiting (after what sounds like only a year)?
This makes no sense.
A lesson I learned early as an analyst is that the model doesn't lie. When you get nonsensical results it's because you're treating something wrong. If I had to guess it would be either the way you're treating purchase price, your exit NAV mark or your revolver upsize draws. Probably the latter. Also check it with an XIRR and make sure your iteration is set right. Let us know what the answer is because I think we've all had a night like yours.
Have scrubbed everything in the model and all checks out. Wtf
Yeah less than one. So getting less than what you’re putting in. This is a bolt on acquisition so debt is drawn from the corporate facility so paying lenders isn’t an issue