So straw poll - how long do we think big 4 consulting lasts before it’s forced to be spun out or gets severely disintermediated by AI and 2nd tier /boutiques. Thoughts ?

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I am less worried about disruption to the model now than I was 6-12 months ago

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I would say it depends on the commercial models and how aggressive they are used by the listed SI's when they leverage AI in solutioning and implementation models. IBM will no doubt try to charge a premium for using AI and then have the traditional fight with the solutioning teams being conservative in the estimation models and DE saying there is too much risk and putting premiums on. Big4 (in my experience) will avoid the risks. You have to go hard early to dominate the space and narrative. If this is done well Big 4 will shrink in 2-3 years max.

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You mean spin consulting out again (as everyone but Deloitte did 20-25 years ago)? :-)

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<5 years unless we see a major economic downturn. Would have originally said sooner but there’s still a lot of suspicion and hesitation out there that will drag out the adoption curve slightly.

Lack of quality, motivated talent and delivery challenges will add insult to injury

5 years to maximise $ for whatever source possible 😂! Others ?

Oh I agree - I think it will be a battle to the bottom $ of SI work. I don’t think the big 4 risk appetite/independence will support many use cases and the boutiques and strat houses divide up the top of house deal and strategy work. We are already seeing some of risk being aligned with audit and that leaves a nice consulting package to spin out to find the core firm.

likesmart

Isn’t a lot of big 4 tech consulting and tech implementation? That will be harder for AI to immediately replace given the change management and process part of it all.

No it a very broad range of consulting from strategy / M&A all the way through to tech implementation

3 years

Yup

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