Mentor
Related Posts
MSFT? Call/put. Play on earnings?
Conversation Starter
Mentor
Conversation Starter
Conversation Starter
Is now a good time to buy VTI?
Conversation Starter
Conversation Starter
More Posts
Still haven't received my Disney + code 🧂🧂🧂🧂
Additional Posts in Option Traders & Investing
Mentor
Mentor
Subject Expert
$BABA got murdered today. Buy, hold, or sell?
Thoughts on Spotify after the dip?
DOGECOIN to the 🚀🚀🚀🚀
Subject Expert
Mentor
Anyone able to buy SNOW at $120?
New to Fishbowl?
Download the Fishbowl app to
unlock all discussions on Fishbowl.
unlock all discussions on Fishbowl.
I agree. I’m so convinced that Tesla is beyond overvalued, for my birthday in a few days I’m turning 35. I will short Tesla $35,000. Putting that money to work! Wish me luck. I hope this post ages well.
Screenshot?
There is 0 fundamentals or business cases that justify Tesla current valuation. I don't care if Elon says he is creating a fully autonomous solar powered vehicle network. It hasn't happened yet and probably won't for another 10 years. Until then it IS just a car company that has big dreams. ALL companies have big dreams to become the #1 something or another. It doesn't mean it'll happen fast enough to justify the price or that it will happen at all. It's a fad stock and that is OK. Just stop peddling it as a business case.
SC1 - Tesla is worth ~$15B with its financials today (20x PE). That would put the stock at about $85. Tesla at the $500 levels reflects dominance of the auto industry ($500 would put it above all auto makers save 1 or 2). Tesla at $2200? That reflects dominance in multiple industries, a complete collapse of the majority of its auto competition, and more
Bowl Leader
No kidding. It’s more than the market cap of ford, General Motors, Honda, and Toyota combined. That should be a warning sign to any educated investor but this market is broken.
Bowl Leader
A3 - except I created the bowl and it’s not once in a blue moon for me. See my VIX calls over last 3 weeks? You build put positions in times of irrational exuberance because the positions are cheap and they pay off the most. You always fall faster than you rise.
Coach
But if you discount earnings in 2085 based on a ZIRP environment it still has room to the upside.
Tesla is a technology company. Not an automaker.
Coach
And he puts all of these ideas in separate companies. Don’t buy Tesla because of space ex or neuralink
But my stock returns go whoosh whoosh
People have been saying this for years. And short sellers have been being burned every year.
The sooner you understand Tesla isn’t a car company, but a battery company, the sooner you’ll understand how the company has defied fundamentals for so long.
Bowl Leader
For so long? A year? It was a $200 stock in July 2019.
Some life advice: when someone else has put a considerable level of time and research into something, leverage it to expand you level of thinking and generally knowledge.
https://ark-invest.com/analyst-research/tesla-price-target/
Tesla is not just merely just a car company. I'm not saying this to make a statement on whether they're overvalued. But I am saying that using car sales volume as your basis to whether the company is overvalued is extremely short-sighted.
A4 google could also be a bust in 10 years. Is that likely heck no but “anything is possible”
Coach
It’s funny, I was looking at September calls to cover the battery day the day before the split was announced. Stock was 1390s and 1500 calls were $90 ($9000). Those calls are now worth over $50k.
Coach
1600 probably were not 16 last week. The 1500s were 90 at 1390. 1600 was at least 50-60. My9k investment would have been 200k+ now. No way o would have held for half of that so just looking past it
TSLA was one of the first stocks I bought in 2012 (at ~$30). I sold when it hit $200 because I felt it was overvalued then. Today, I could justify a price around $600 because it has caused a disruption in the auto and battery markets. $2000? No way!
Mentor
Most of this run up is short squeezes. I don’t know why people keep shorting the stock.
They don’t. This is not a short squeeze, this is people buying the stock.
I'm that guy who was ready to pull trigger once it hit $350 in March ...like a lot of shares..
It never did.......
And yet here we are.
Bowl Leader
🧐 on a post split basis. Lol
People don't invest in Tesla because of the car company, they invest because of the opportunity that Tesla represents. Electrification, space travel, neural link, solar energy, hyperloop, and yes - cars. If you analyze Tesla as a pure-play vehicle manufacturer you'll miss the point. (Just like Apple is much more than a phone manufacturer)
Coach
Many of those brands you list, Tesla doesn’t own. (space travel or neuralink for example). Their solar company first solar was not doing well then bought out by Tesla. You are putting all of your eggs in the TSLA battery story at this stage
I don’t fully disagree with you, I think it depends on how you value their competitive advantage. How much is a fully autonomous vehicle worth? How long can they be the sole mass producer of autonomous cars, that is assuming of course they are first. All of which is difficult to put dollars against.
Clearly none of you understand the power of the degenerates that praise papa elon. then you underestimate the idiots on robinhood buying it as it climbs. tesla will keep going to the moon. i’m sorry for y’all woth puts there’s no shot you’ll be in the money
Mentor
I agree with you. Most TSLA hardcore are not selling short of an abrupt Elon Musk retirement.
Don’t 👏🏻 Short 👏🏻 Fanboy 👏🏻 Stocks.
Let people go with their arrogance. 1% will get the timing perfect and will just brag about how they were right.
Mentor
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualized-how-much-revenue-automakers-generate-every-second/
Coach
“Funding secured” $420 - Elon musk. Will be that price post split and that will be the news story
1%. Try Another 10% for Tesla today. It’s sad to see those who missed out are hating. Don’t worry I used to be a hater too until I joined the cho cho train.
Lol I'm here for the wreckage
Subject Expert
I bought 20 calls and sold 15 after it hit 475... let the last ride until this second trip to 490... i don’t know why anyone wouldn’t do that short day trade for free money.
Subject Expert
I thought about holding overnight but I bought weeklies and wasn’t sure where it would go... happy regardless