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Think of the dumbest people you have worked with. It just needs to be slightly better than that to be massively disruptive.

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Hmm... it's a really interesting argument. I definitely think AI is overhyped and I feel like it's nowhere near the level of intelligence that people like to claim. Not sure if that constitutes a bubble though, or what would take for it to pop, as you say

I saw the investor Roger McNamee say something cogent, that AI can only be as smart as what it's trained on. So it will always be lagging, it can never be cutting edge. It can't be creative, as it's based on what has been fed into it. Now, if you listen to a lot of AI cheerleaders, you'd never get any sense of that. It's all pie in the sky. I'm not sure there's technically a bubble yet, but there's sure a lot of hype. Or what was Greenspan's phrase, irrational exuberance.

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