Are my clients a bellwether of the larger economy, or just a bad quarter? One client likely going BK and has stopped paying invoices, they and at least two others have had multiple rounds of layoffs, one small client/long term relationship has bills that are now passing 120 days, and I just fired a client for making ridiculous accusations about a sub-$1k bill. Across the board belt tightening, though some slightly improving financing activity as well. In 5 years I’ve never had a late payment.

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Consumer discretionary spending is slowing, inflation is rising, and indications are for a <90k job print Friday (who knows what BLS will actually show though). Not good.

But corporate fundamentals are OK, with great equity valuations and credit spreads. So who knows.

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Looking at my practice, I have a few clients that probably should/would have gone bankrupt years ago if it wasn't for cheap money that was the result of ZIRP. Now that ZIRP is over, those businesses are on borrowed time.

I'm keeping a close eye on aging receivables and I recommend you do so as well. I've already taken one hit that I would have avoided if I had figured this out last year.

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I am seeing it in my clients too.

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Interesting OP. One question and follow up: Are your clients’ businesses in one particular sector or related to one particular sector? Or are they all over the place?

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Tell me about it. I have an enormous nostalgia for cheap money—even as it was in 2019. (Commercial real estate investment here.) I suppose the problem when money gets so expensive is that not nearly as much gets done. At least in building and redevelopment.

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