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If it’s not something I’ve done multiple times (aka can actually estimate), I usually double the amount of time I expect it to take. So if I think it will take one day, I say I can finish it in two. Then if I finish earlier than expected, it’s a pleasant surprise but if it takes longer, there’s no issue.
Also important to look at your calendar before giving an estimate! Too many times I’ve promised something by EOD and didn’t realize I was in back to back calls for the next three days lol
Just experience, I guess
Rising Star
Generally speaking, if you ask a confident technical person, an experienced project manager will double the estimate they provide. Just yesterday someone asked me to estimate work to complete a straightforward project, I pulled 40 hours out of the air. Then I sat down and wrote down every single task in detail, assigned time estimate in minutes for each task, and came up with 23 hours of continuous work. Although I may have overestimated, this really didn't consider switching time, interruptions, and hyperfocus time. So I held to by my initial estimate. Getting things done early is a bonus.
I use an app to track my projects. It lets me see how much time I am working on them on my computer.
Do enough of them and you can get a pretty good idea of how long things take you, for the future. No thinking needed.