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Rising Star
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Welp, pack it up experts and central banks. OP figured it out. We’re good! Single data point heading upwards at one point in time means we’re all in the clear.
I’m a democrat and can differentiate the fluctuations of the economy and corporate greed from political party. A political party usually does not have much power over recession. Not the comment you thought it was
Chief
The amount of restructuring work we are doing, and layoffs being planned/happening, says otherwise.
But I’m sure you’re right
Pro
The data is backwards looking, and therefore lagging.
Consumer credit card debt at an all time high, with the interest rates on that debt skyrocketing. Consumers are still spending, most likely beyond their means, because we’ve been in a cheap money mindset for over a decade… bad habits are hard to break.
Fed will increase rates two more times this calendar year, indication being 75bp in Nov and 50bp in Dec.
Strengthening USD is crippling foreign currency. Commodities traded on the USD (oil, etc.) are physically constrained but also the parity in exchange rates compounds the inflation on those commodities for other countries as their currencies yield decreasing buying power.
Housing is in free fall, which obviously has a significant impact on multiple fronts. At some point, recent buyers who opted for ARMs in order to afford their home purchase may begin to see adjustments.
Reduction in force initiatives and hiring freezes are well underway across many industries/companies
Increasing cost of capital will impact investments and growth plans
The reality is the momentum is building on many fronts that will have a negative impact on the economy (domestic and global) in at least the short term.
This thread is too much.
OP:
*reads GDP print headline*
*becomes “the data” guy*
*ignores other data and the concept of leading/lagging economic indicators*
We are going to have a recession. Very likely. Are we in one now? Maybe. But it’s just started. The negativity around it is worse than what’s going on though.
Chief
Op is a clown. I am sure he is pumping his team for midterms.
We will add Manager to the clown list. Currently occupied by Deloitte and PwC.
OP during quarter 2 of 2008:
"The GDP grew 2.3%. Heh, looks like all the TRUTHERS calling this a 'great recession' are wrong. I bet they feel dumb"
The only data point supporting the “we are in a recession” narrative was slightly negative GDP, which is now completely wiped out. All other data was and continues to point to no recession. That’s what happens when you let a political narrative get in the way of data.
But I’m sure those same people will be the first to claim we’re no longer in one, right??!
Think I just lost braincells reading some of these arguments
Cool story bra
OP vs Central banks.
Betting is open
This was the goal last time… run the economy into a wall with interest rates. I’m all in on bonds at 12% fixed when we get there
I think we are heading for a recession but not for a 2008 calamity. We are receding from the over hiring, easy money world of post-COVID lockdown and feeling the sting of inflation and rate hikes. Its like a hangover. The economy has to pull back, it has no choice. But, GDP growth is a good sign and this weeks earnings show companies are lowering guidance but still beating expectations, so, yes we are "receding", but a pullback from ATH to a fairly priced baseline doesnt sound as catchy as the total annihilation every financial "guru" predicts. Unless Russia uses a nuke, I think we'll be rocking again in 18-24 months, and much sooner if CPI continues to stall or fall.
Why are you saying this like it’s a good thing, you don’t understand that we are trying to reduce inflation. With this, the FED is going to raise rates so aggressively that it will push us into a recession. We are fucked
Well according to Biden we were never in one anyway lol
0.6% growth for the quarter is bad. There’s no other way to spin it
Ha I literally LOL everytime someone starts pounding their fists that "we're not in a recession!!!!" They always forget the "yet" on the end. Sure we're not in a recession, duh... Trust me when we're in a recession you'll know it. Unfortunately though we're heading straight into a one. That's what matters. Sucks, but 2-10 yield curve inverted and now 3month-10y too, which is the strongest indicator there is and screaming recession dead ahead. Now, will the recession be particularly bad? I hope not, if we can avoid a financial crisis it could be a run of the mill one. But thats my wishful thinking, noone knows.
There’s an election coming up, and with fewer than 25% of the country registered as Republican, the only way they can win is through grievance or economic anxiety
“Biden recession!” Sounds great. But “Biden lowering the deficit by 1.3 trillion, 3.5% unemployment, fastest job growth in US history, rosing wages, lowest bankruptcies in decades, F500 exceeding earnings expectations” just isn’t good news for those trying to extort fears
My favorite thing about the “Biden’s reduced the deficit” attempted narrative is how they pivoted from failing at passing their agenda at the scale they wanted to “we reduced the deficit”. If Biden, Nancy, and Chuck had gotten their wish list through, spending would’ve blown the roof off!😂 The only person who stopped them was Joe Manchin…the most powerful guy named Joe in DC!
The economy isn’t just one number and the collection of numbers are giving a fairly clear picture. Micheal Kantro has a useful model for recession early warnings.
Housing: The NAHB housing market index is at 38 and was over 80 at the start of the year
New orders: The ISM new orders index is at 47.1 versus being in the 60s a year ago
Profits: Composite earnings for the S&P have been slowing for a year and forward estimates for 2023 are being revised downward
Employment: the unemployment rate is thankfully still under 4%, but job additions have slowed significantly according to the Non-Farm Payroll reports.
This may be better.
https://twitter.com/michaelkantro/status/1510671155027451909?s=21&t=x223j4osgMS43WsiQzbsLw
Ahhh correlation and causation lesson must have flew right over op’s head !
It’s clear from the comments that the people who want to talk down the economy to impact the election in two weeks will not stop, no matter the objective data saying otherwise.
Chief
wendy’s doesn’t want him..objectively.
The amount of clients I have asking for restructuring and downsizing work is remarkable compared to the recent trend, so yeah it’s well on its way in my view, even at big, financially healthy companies.
I love how OP says “that’s what happens when you let a political narrative get in the way of data” as they post an article from CNBC. As if CNBC doesn’t have an agenda or their own narrative that they’re trying to spin. It’s easy to cherry pick certain datapoints while ignoring others in order to craft a story.