{ "media_type": "text", "post_content": "How are you mitigating the risk of a looming recession on your portfolio (401k and investment) ? I understand time in the market beats timing the market but is there any hedges that can be made ....", "post_id": "5de2b5c85d3db7002a5a2afb", "reply_count": 26, "vote_count": 1, "bowl_id": "552d1d24dc1c586b09d2d051", "bowl_name": "Consulting" }

How are you mitigating the risk of a looming recession on your portfolio (401k and investment) ? I understand time in the market beats timing the market but is there any hedges that can be made ....

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Invest as normal. Keep 6 months worth of expenses in cash or cash equivalents

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Then you should quit your job and open up your own hedefund.

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I feel like I hear about a “pending recession” and advice like “time in market beats timing the market” every other day on this app....

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I could go for a discount on equities right about now. Buy as normal!

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My portfolio is strong to very strong.

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Ummm in terms of having a sense of humor. It’s from Something about Mary.

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Im not doing anything. Rode out 2008 and while it was painful for a few years, I've done very well since the recovery. Still a few decades away from retirement so nothing really scares me anymore. Try and time the markets at your own peril.

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We've had a "looming recession" for the past year and the market is at all time highs. Timing the market is nearly impossible. Unless you're retiring in the next few years, dont worry about it. However, if you feel you must do something, you can use options to mitigate your risk. Assuming you're long the S&P, you can sell calls / buy puts to keep your risk to a level you can tolerate. If you're not comfortable doing this, you could also calculate how much youd lose on a 20% dip in the market (i.e. bear market). Sell enough of your assets so that whatever you keep in the market youd be able to stomach the loss. Then look to buy the dip with the cash. In a way it's a win/win, cause if you're wrong the portion you keep in the market will continue to appreciate.

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I agree. Honestly, with most of these posts I think the most sensible thing is to keep on investing as usual. Keep it simple and use broad market indices. No need to go super complicated unless they know what they’re doing and understand the risk involved.

Did you not read the first part of the post that advised doing nothing? Obviously there is risk in the form of opportunity cost. But that's the gamble you take, depending upon your investment horizon it may he worth it to avoid the possibility of a major loss

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If your investment horizon is closer, you should be re-balancing regardless

That's what I'm suggesting. Selling equities and investing in short term assets (e.g. money market, short duration t-bills) is rebalancing and adjusting for your risk appetite. Balancing risk-reward is the name of the game, and if it helps you sleep at night it's worth limiting reward to mitigate your risk

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Perhaps move half my portfolio into bonds ..etc ? New to investing so would like to get your thoughts.

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Totally depends on your financial situation and goals. Let’s assume this is in addition to traditional retirement saving. If for example you want to buy a home in the next few years I probably would not put a bunch into the market now at all-time highs if you’re planning to pull some out for a down payment. If you’re going to leave that money in for the long term, just invest as normal. Personally, I’m putting $$$ into high yield savings for now. Not really trying to “time the market,” but also not trying to put more money into the market at (or near) a peak, and historically speaking we’re due for at least a correction sometime in the next couple years and want to have free cash to plow in then.

This is literally the definition of timing the market lol. You've just rationalized it in your head by telling yourself that you're not "trying" to time the market. Whatever makes you happy, it's your money... but be honest with yourself

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