How do internal promotions really happen?
Sometimes it feels like promotions are based on timing more than performance. What actually moves the needle inside companies — visibility, sponsorship, results, or something else?

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I think it's always a combination. Timing, yes. But it's not like the timing is going to override someone's poor performance. So I think you have to work hard and have great performance so that when the timing is right, you'll be first in line.

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True.

Market need, powerful sponsors, alliances within the power scheme, exposure on the right type of deals, and decent ability to do the job (this last one is not even the main factor).

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Yes

It honestly just depends on the company you are with. Sometimes it is performance, sometimes it is politics, sometimes it is timing, etc. I would talk to your manager about promotions if it is something you are interested in.

If in house. I feel timing are most important. The early joiners gets promoted quickly

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