What % is a good target to aim for on a Monte Carlo analysis early retirement calculator? Some say 85% to 90%?

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I prefer an Impala analysis, but then I have always had a soft spot for full sized vehicles.

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It doesn’t have as much utility as El Camino analysis.

likefunny

Huge caveat that looking at Monte Carlo alone is too simplistic.
With that said it depends what your backup plan is and how comfortable you’d be putting that in place.
If you are OK with going back to work, or cutting spending sharply in a downturn then 85% is probably fine.

If you have little discretionary to cut, and can’t go back to work, then you need something much closer to 100%

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Thank you. If this is simplistic, what other factors should I consider? I thought Monte Carlo captured most factors / scenarios...?

85 to 90% is pretty conservative. Good thing to shoot for.

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You have to be careful building conservative assumptions on top of other conservative assumptions. They magnify issues. For example, 3% inflation and 5% equity returns on top of a 3% withdrawal rate means you can never retire. Do no more than 90% on a Monte Carlo simulation.

4% rule

No need for Monte Carlo

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In this case, the Monte Carlo is unnecessary complexity with very little value add

smartfunny

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