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If you knew that, you’d be a billionaire over night.
Mentor
If trump wins and he implements tariffs on all Chinese products, the economic recovery will be torpedoed. That probably holds down home prices. Honestly, a strong economy will push prices up and hold interest rates up too.
Oh I never really take what he says literally. When he talks Ukraine, China, Mexico, NATO, he’s negotiating. I assumed everyone knew that. For example he might say, we’re tired of paying for all of NATO, we might just back out, our risk is low. Suddenly all the counties pay up. Did Mexico build the border wall? That’s the difference between a politician and a business man. His intent with China may be to open up markets, get them to stop dumping products to put our manufacturers out of business. 🤷♂️ He’s not going to telegraph his strategy, he’s just going to get us a better deal. Thats how I take it anyway.
Subject Expert
Might go up, might go down. 🤷♂️
Construction costs go up with Chinese imports costing more, raising home prices, insurance, etc.
Based on memory Harris is raising capital gains from 21% to 28% so anything past 250k single, 500k married will be taxed at the higher rate. In addition she’ll tax items you own but haven’t sold. Currently she’s saying it’s only for the ultra wealthy, but that’s how every tax starts. So you own a million dollar home at retirement, you’ll have to sell it to pay the tax. She’s also phasing out some of the depreciation write offs, making investment properties less profitable. She’s using those increased taxes to give subsidies to first generation homeowners, low income, first time buyers. And if my 25 year old daughter would qualify I might see the benefit in the strategy. She’s disqualified because I own a home. I’d expect modest appreciation couple percent in cities, maybe home prices lose a couple percent in rural areas. I’m not clear on her developer subsidies. I generally don’t care for subsidies and picking winners and losers.
Fed controls over night lending rates which have a loose relationship with the 10 year yield on bonds. An additional 2-3% is added based on credit score and that’s your interest rate. The fed raises interest rates for inflation. Inflation is created by adding new money into the system. Too much money chasing too few goods and services. Neither party is good with budgets, it’s a toss up.
Trump, he’ll just leave the tax cuts in place. Maybe lower them further. He said something about developing federal land. I don’t think he’s serious about it. I’d just plan on everything staying as is from his previous tax cuts. Adding some relief for service workers, retirees, with less taxes. Neither of those groups will push home prices higher, but more disposable income could cause prices to go higher.
So how you may benefit really depends on which group you fall into. Already invested, Trump. Need that subsidy and you think you’ll qualify Kamala. But I will say student loans don’t give me a lot of hope in a home subsidy program.
In Chat GPT’s opinion: While the expansion of taxes over time is not unheard of, implementing a tax on unrealized gains for everyone is unlikely to happen quickly due to the political, practical, and economic challenges. However, as history shows, tax policies targeting specific groups can broaden over time, especially if governments face revenue shortages or shifting political landscapes. If such a tax were implemented for the ultra-wealthy, close monitoring of its evolution would be important to understand any risk of expansion.