If offered a great position and 30% bump, seems like a no brainer to jump. But I’m wary of an upcoming recession, and how being a new employee would make me vulnerable to layoffs. What do you think?

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You won’t ever be able to time a recession, take your 30% bump and start building up an emergency fund if a recession does happen

likeupliftingsmart

dont try to time things like this, especially if you are early in your career. consulting is also not a safe place to be during a recession, especially if you do not have hard skills.

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You can't predict recessions. They have been predicted at one point or another for the last decade. No one has gotten it right yet.

If people are so sure it is imminent they should put their money where their mouth is and short the S&P 500

likefunny

Do we maybe believe that future yields are a function of time?

Worry about it later. For a 30% bump, you’d have so much extra savings if that happens, and better footing for alternatives. Just don’t change your lifestyle to be more expensive when you get the increase.

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So I was a victim of a nightmare scenario similar to what you're imagining about 2-3 years ago. I left a comfortable position for a 40% pay bump... roughly 6 months and zero staffing later, I was fired, then it took over 4 months to get a new job... yet even im that nightmare scenario, I ended up roughly similar financially for that 10 month period of time as I would have been had I stayed at my first job.

Fortune favors the bold, my friend.

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Helpful thank you

Always jobs for good people. Keep doing what got you that job.

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Thanks 🐠

First off, the risk of a recession is over blown.

Second, anyplace worth working for won’t follow a LIFO approach to workforce reductions since they’ll want to keep the best talent regardless of their time with the organization.

During the last two downturns (2008-09 and 2014-15 in oil & gas) we looked for low performers and people with known limitations long before thinking about targeting new hires

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