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Conversation Starter
Almost Monday, back to the grind 😪😪
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Window, aisle, or middle?
Pro
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Pro
Not even the staunchest tariff advocate would say tariffs help the consumer. If anything, it helps industries / labor. Key words being if anything.
I work in IB at the LMM industrials. And I have heard the opposite. Very limited tariff impact and some cases none. Just another anecdotal data point to consider.
Rising Star
Aren’t you guys movers? If so then you want more manufacturing, oil drilling, construction etc in US so even if it means your customers are paying more to get spare parts for their machines at a higher cost. Right?
Chief
There’s a ton of uncertainty and companies pull back when faced with uncertainty. The stock market is stupid overpriced and I’m waiting for that shoe to drop. Tariffs are only part of the problem. This isn’t intended to be political at all - just the reality of the moment.
Another data point. Transportation is a very reliable leading economic indicator and that industry is really hurting this year. More than anything else, that’s the thing that has me most worried.
On the other hand, the chaos, the tearing down of ineffective systems, the potential to shift more production to domestic sources, getting Europe to step up - there are some potential benefits.
Our government really does need fixing but Trump is destroying the balance that was built into our three branches - and Congress is a toilet that can’t do its job because of tribalism and, as a result, is completely unable to deal with Trump, or anything else. There are leaders who could fix that if they had guts and integrity. There are potentially some good candidates in 2028 but 2026 likely won’t change anything, and courts are on trump’s side. All this has been coming since the “Contract with America”. We desperately need term limits!!!
Don’t get me started on international affairs.
*hops off soapbox*
The statement "Market is stupid" means you know something the most sophisticated, largest, and well capitalized investors don't know and that they are wrong. Maybe so. So if you have conviction, go the other way bet against it and put your money where your mouth is.
Chief
I have put my modest investments in position for a big correction. If you’ve lived a while, you have seen patterns. There are many examples of equity markets playing follow the leader and paying the price. Every bubble had indicators that it was coming. Not giant obvious things but things that simply don’t make sense. Too long a discussion for 🐟 🥣.
Some senior associate taking ‘left and right’ to business owners is some deloitte kid taking to the guy who runs a pizza shop in west village at 3am
You are ‘LMAO’ a lot. i hope you A is OK
No, this whole grift is lining 47’s pockets. You expect to see more social services and infrastructure investment from this GOP?