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Conversation Starter
Time in market > timing market
Tell that to investors in Japanese stock markets...
This is just the classical way of saying 'stonks go up'.
After having been nearly 100% equities (stocks and index funds) for the past 25 years, I’m concerned that another correction is coming. One month ago I shifted to 100% cash in my retirement accts, and 50% cash in my brokerage accts. I missed out on about 6% appreciation in the past month, but I think the market is irrational right now and I’m going to wait. I might continue to miss out on more short term gains, and I’m considering this a week-to-week, month-to-month decision to wait and see what happens.
Pro
I’ll give you four approaches. Pick the one that lets you sleep the best at night.
1) put it all in and ride it out. No regrets.
2) put it all in now. Set a bailout level and a buy back in level. Something like bail at 2800 and buy back in if it gets down to 1800 or if it rebounds to 2800. Those levels are arbitrary, BTW. Pick what you’re comfortable with.
3) Dollar cost average your way into the market over 6 to 12 months. If the market drops 10% put two payments in.
4) sit in the cash and determine a schedule of buying the dip that may or may not come.
For my market tracking money I did #3. I’m about half way through the program now. For my individual stock money I was buying from March 18 until last Friday. I focused on companies I wanted to own.
You’re going to be less than perfect no matter what. What you don’t want is to whip around in the moment and do something stupid. When I get emotional I get sloppy and make mistakes. Planning the trade and then trading the plan works much better.
Fantastic summary. FWIW - 3 works well for me. Every time I have had great timing, it is because I was plain lucky. 3 helps me moderate my position. Sometimes 3 fails e.g. when Shopify fell after they suspended guidance. I had a lot of it and I knew it was a matter of time before it went back up. I started with a 1k investment and before I could process it again it was at 550 after which it went past my buy point. I had another 9k to put which would have been triple :). This though is a rarity.
Increased my positions in JPM, TD, NET, and INTC the past couple weeks and probably gonna buy more.
Still got some cash on hand cause I’m bearish overall, but I can’t time the market so I just buy whenever I see discounts.
Primarily based on valuation tbh. It still has massive market share, low PE ratio, growing earnings and revenue, etc.
Felt like the drop was a big overreaction and still has some upside. I’ll be monitoring its long term progress but I don’t think it’s going down as much as people say it will be.
Really market timing is a fools errand. Decrease your risk and decrease your potential return by spreading out your investing by dollar cost averaging in and stick to plan. My portfolio has done very well this year since I am constantly dollar cost averaging both retirement and non retirement accounts since I have bought when market is down.
I have the same question
Pro
I’ve been buying into individual shares since March 18. Still have 18% cash but selling a bit this next week.
I’m bearish. Market cap to GDP is absurd. The American consumer is beaten to a bloody pulp. I think we’re looking at massive credit risks.
But I just can’t bring myself to get a huge cash pile.
Never sit out of the market
I moved into value a couple months ago. The fundamentals are favorable in the long term. I won’t be entering any tech any time soon
Conversation Starter
Djia 30k by end of Sept/Oct. There is no dip coming..if there was one it would.have came by now. Fed has pumped 3 trillion in market , s&p is gonna correct beyond 5-8%