Now the mortgage rates are going down. When would be a good time to refinance? Any suggestions on mortgage companies?

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It's not awful time, I think, but I don't expect them to go up and they will probably continue to go down a bit. So you could, but you might benefit a bit more by waiting a year. But who knows?

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This indicates a downward trend. It’s going to take like 3-6 months to see the effect of today’s rate change at which point they’ll make a decision. It will take years for it to get to a point where you’ll want to refinance and make it worth it and be confident it won’t go down a lot further

My best guess is about 4 years from now, when we finally hit a recession and the fed is trying to stimulate growth

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The “right time” is highly situational.

What’s your current rate? What’s your loan-to-value ratio? What rate could you get on a refinance? Joe much would you pay in closing costs? How much would you save each month? Those last 2 numbers will give you a break even timeline.

As far as a lender goes, I always suggest talking to a broker to find the best rate. If you don’t know one, talk to just about any real estate agent and they can usually direct you to one. You can also check a site like BankRate to see what your options are in your state.

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Not really you need to get a couple % lower to make it worthwhile. It also resets your amortization schedule, when it resets most of the payment goes to interest. Plus it costs money. When the fed cuts it’s typically aggressive. So it could be 2% lower in 12-16 months. Even if I had a high rate I’d focus more on principal pay down, then get a 2-3% drop in rate in 16 months and substantially reduce that payment. I’d also never pull equity out. Tell tale sign of poor financial management.

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The fed will drop rates again before year end and probably multiple times next year. So if you are getting more than .5% you can refi but don’t pay out of pocket because you will want to refi again in a year. If you pay for the refi, you will be wasting your savings on the expense of the refi.

You might not get the lowest possible rate if you do a no cost refi but if you will refi again in a year, that cost allocated over just one year might wipe out all your savings from the lower rate. I would also consider doing a refi to an ARM because you will probably refi in a year. For example, let’s say you can get 6.375% with a $8000 cost or 6.625% for free. You need to look at what the difference in interest over 12 months would be to see if it’s worth $8,000. Typically the break even on those rate buy downs is more like 3 years. So if you expect to refi again in 12 months, you would be better off with the 6.625% loan.

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