S&P up or down this year? Feels like it might be a rough year. Will this change your FIRE strategy? I feel like I need to focus on 3% withdrawal goal instead of 4%.

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Unless you’re on the cusp of retirement, I don’t think one year should change your strategy. The classic 4% rule doesn’t assume steady and constant growth year over year, it’s based on actual data where the market goes up and down.

likesmart

I’m so far away that I haven’t given a ton of thought myself, but I’ve seen more people argue 4% is too conservative than the other way around. Obviously the longer the retirement the more conservative you will want to be.

4% is a really good starting place. Remember the 4% accounts for the market crashing and rebounding.

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Probably up. Historically that's what happens. But I really have no idea.

It doesn't change my strategy. If you aren't investing in any stocks other than the S&P 500, a good way to change your strategy would be to also invest in US small cap and total international stock market. But that is also true at other times, and always.

Planning for 3% rather than 4% might be wise, depending what your portfolio is, your life expectancy at retirement, and how much flexibility there is in your budget. I plan for 2.5%.

The big point is, current conditions do not present an opportunity for market timing. Market timing is a mistake.

likefunny

And you. Nice meeting you.

It’s just a buying opportunity when the corrections and the bears come along. Buy, buy, buy and do nothing else. As others have said, only concern is for imminent retirees who are heavily exposed. Not suggesting any change as we buy when the market goes up or down. DCA

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Up. No.

Taking your feeling out of it and you’ll realize much better results

But I’m not good at taking my feelings out 🤣

funnylike

It will be nominally up, barely, but down in real dollars. Trump has tanked the economy but has turned on the money printer to artificially inflate stock prices and put dollars to work. Inflation numbers are artificially masked, so real prices you pay at the store aren’t accurately reflected. Next 10 years will be 3-4% per year instead of historical 8-10%

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