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Hey all! Would anyone mind running through some practice cases with me this weekend and next week? I have my final interviews for TD&E at EY next week and unfortunately, I don’t have anyone to help me prepare for the case interview :/ I haven’t done a case in 2 years so I’m a little nervous and want to prepare as much as possible
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1. Up
Another dismal day in the markets as we end the 43 day of our never ending correction story. There is not much to add to any chart at this point. Sure I could throw up some hype and hope, but plainly there is just not much to talk about, so I thought what more of a perfect time then to talk about Patience and Value Investing and also, why has the market lost it's shine! First its very simple. Large traders are simply finding value and alpha in the equities market. Why invest in a speculative market when U.S. companies where just handed a 30% growth to their bottom line by simply cutting taxes.
Did anyone notice that the Bitcoin turned to the downside once the Tax Plan was passed Dec 20th? You think this was a Coincidence? Even I was looking and adding quality stocks that would benefit from the tax break, and like I mentioned earlier, you do not need to turn on the weather channel to see what the weather is outside your house. Market sentiment has turned bullish for U.S. equities, and flat for the crypto market.
What the market needs is large institutions and traders to re-enter the market looking for alpha. Right now they are finding alpha in the stock and equities markets, so why risk when you do not have to. As the equities market becomes over valued, they will soon look for growth and alpha elsewhere, and they will surely be looking to the crypto space among other markets like gold and silver. So until that time the "Best Trade is No Trade", and to accumulate quality coins, with future value, on dips.
Bitcoin' is simply starting to consolidate as the market tries to price the "value" of Bitcoin'. Can we go lower? Sure we can. Can we go higher? Absolutely. I do not care how long you have been in the markets, or how many indicators, waves, or clouds you can throw on a chart, at this point the market is simply finding the "Value" of the underlying commodity. Long term I believe that Bitcoin' holds great value, but we may trade sideways, or see some volatile swings for a while. I am willing to wait because in the long term, the limited supply and increasing demand will take the price higher and I do not mind being patient.
So here we are in the 43 day of the correction. Now other than a few longer term positional trades, I have pretty much closed the lap top so to speak on cryptos. I still have a good amount of cash sitting on the sidelines and I am looking for quite frankly "value" coins like NEO' and adding small positions there. Market corrections drag down even the best of coins, and those are where I want to be positioned when the market returns seeking alpha, not in some crappy coin with no product, no market penetration and only a dream. I'll trade those when the bull market resumes. But for now the "Best Trade is No Trade" and to HODL your core positions.
I will not put up some B.S. on a chart because I do NOT see any reason to trade this market period. I'm long the dollar here and looking to add on dips to my core. I can not state enough that trading markets during corrections is "risky business" and even the best traders get crushed. Right now is the time for doing homework, research, and finding coins that will have future "value" and looking for entry levels to buy. Other than being patient, this is the only thing we should be doing right now. I can guarantee that the average Joe trading right now is experiencing "portfolio erosion". Don't be a Joe!
Like the metals market, I slowly accumulate when the market is looking for alpha elsewhere. Eventually cryptos, like gold and silver , will find an inflow of institutional money when the water has been drained from the equities pond. Like herds looking for a new watering hole when the one they are at dries up, investors will look for alpha once the equities market is over valued. This is where Patience pays off in the long term. I know many want the coin of the day, but patience and value investing will win in the long term!
PWC SA what are you aligning target mkt cap to? % of gold cap?
2. Down
$30,000 by the end of 2018
Up. BTC will be like the brick-and-mortar of crypto, as more advanced blockchains will develop.
$50000 end 2018... could see it fall to $7500 first though... total market cap of crypto should be around $4 trn