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It is better to take the job with higher pay now. Lower salary with potential for growth does not guarantee your salary will grow at the rate you expect it to trend.
Take the higher paid job to negotiate offer with the higher potential employer.
I wouldn’t be so definitive. Look at what the delta is now and look at the delta for a future base case. Is it 20k now vs 200k in the future? I’d opt for whichever has the highest ceiling.
That’s survivor bias, people who hop for small increase are the type who had limited upward trajectory at the previous firm to begin with, by not hopping they are capping themselves at an even lower level. The ones who can achieve desired progression (be it outstanding skill set, personality or social skill) would not be deterred by the fact they changed jobs a few times either.
Take the money and look for opportunities at the company too! I settled for a lower-paying role early career and regretted it.
Take the money
Consider exploring other opportunities that may provide a higher rate of compensation. Additionally, consider ways to ensure your financial security in the long term, such as investing or creating a side hustle.