Working in Tier 2 tech as one level below staff with 4YOE and 200K TC (no sign on). If I reach staff level in 3-4 years, will 300K be achievable?

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Unlikely. Internal promotions tend to be much more stagnant. Of course it still depends on the company, how much visibility you have, and where the org sits in terms of top-down strategic vision and budgets.

Also, as of this year, inflation is back on the table. This will affect external offer numbers significantly over your timeline.

Since you're in tech, it's also likely that a significant portion of your TC is equity. While timing the market isn't something that's reliably attainable, I think it's fair enough to say that tech may be in another bubble that has a non-negligible chance at bursting within your set timeline. Account for this.

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Even if tech bursts the TC will be greater than other industries.

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