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Data has pointed to a recession for a while now.
If it happens it happens. I may lose my mind And my job but there is one thing a Sayian always keeps "HIS PRIDEEEE"
Not sure about the data…record employment numbers and inflation hovering 4% doesn’t sound like a recession at all.
What data are you referring to please? Statistically recessions follow the end of a republican presidency. However we are living in unprecedented post modern pandemic times. Curious about your source?
Chief
I've been more heavily skewed towards "cash" (money market @ 5%) vs stocks since I don't trust the markets but otherwise not really changing how I live my life
What data? The data we have makes it seem like we actually pulled off a soft landing (for now).
Anyhow keep a lot of cash. You may miss out on some investing but you'll be fine if you lose your job.
I know alot of people are asking to what data....it's historical data. We are looking at the past data to make an informed decision about what may happen in the future...
I'm no expert nor do I really care I just read. hope you are subscribed to buisness insider for this read!
https://www.businessinsider.com/next-recession-warning-signs-economy-downturn-investing-deutsche-bank-2023-9
There are data elements within the article thats all im worried about :-)
You need to read this WSJ article: Goldman’s Chief Economist Has Nailed Big Calls. Here’s His Next One. https://www.wsj.com/articles/goldman-sachss-chief-economist-has-nailed-big-calls-heres-his-next-one-84122b35
Jan Hatzius pegs a 15% chance of a recession this year. It's a must read article that also discusses why other economists get their forecasts wrong (he too has been incorrect but more right than wrong). In regards to January's soft retain sales and inflation being higher than expected, Goldman, "blamed that inflation on start-of-the-year price hikes that reflect past rather than future trends".
Anyways, don't get bought into one economic report but read a wide variety to form your opinion.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/deutsche-bank-no-longer-expects-us-recession-2024-2024-02-06/ here's another Deutsche Bank prediction.
No one can predict if and when a recession will hit…
Data is not a reliable source either. If it was, these economists would have been able to call the Covid dip, etc.