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Why does it seem so hard to break 200?
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Your chance to sell RSUs may come during a future financing, but very possibly you will have to wait for the company to go public to sell your RSUs. So you need to believe the company can grow into public markets to have any value at all from the RSUs.
In the meantime there will be tax implications, depending on how the RSUs are structured - there are very plausible situations in which you pay a tax bill in advance, for example on the face value of very cheap options, but the options go to zero because the company fails. Of course, RSUs have lots of upside, but there’s some amount of downside too.
But the short answer is, they’re as valuable as you believe the company is promising. You’re probably not going to be able to apply a rigorous valuation to them unless the company is pretty mature. But if you want to, a hybrid option pricing model is probably the best.
You can always make a market and operating model with various scenarios if it makes you feel more comfortable, but these are the tools of value investing and you’re in a growth investing scenario.
Sometimes you just have to find the business model plausible, management’s claim to be the right team credible, hold your nose, and jump. I hope it works out great for you!
What stage is the company?
Short answer: it’s complex