Expecting our third child (under 2) in a few months and want to trade my 2023 Honda Passport lease in early for a 2024 Honda Odyssey Touring or Elite. Also have a 2022 Pilot SE but with 3 car seats coming we need the minivan. The Passport has 5k miles on it and is in perfect shape still and I have a relationship with the salesman/dealer. What should I shoot for in terms of numbers and financials when I negotiate this (assuming he lets me trade in early)?

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Congrats on the kid! 3 under 2 is crazy.
It’s going to be tough trading in a lease with over a year on it. It’s not impossible but you might get hosed. You can always buy out the lease and sell it yourself (which is what you or the dealer will probably end up doing)

You can also get away with getting a suburban or Escalade ESV if you don’t want a minivan. Thats the route I took because I sure as hell didn’t want a van

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Don't do a minivan. 1 automakers dont make minivans anymore. 2 get a suv or sedan you have three kids now get some thing they can brag how cool your car/ride is compared to their friends moms. 3 at least 1000 down payment so the salesman knows your serious. 4. Make the monthly payment around 400 to 500 dollars a month so you can use your money on the kids/life bills. The length of the loan won't matter if you can afford the mortgage/ light bill. I turned in a leased car to get my current car before it's not a problem. The dealership loves repeat customers like us. Don't worry about that. 5. Make that salesman work for you. Tell him I want new car for around 400 dollars a month. Yes they might have to subtract how much you leased the old car and add it on top of the new car that your getting. Which might hurt in the long run. But you are giving them a thousand extra bucks right now to ease the hurt for them.

How about you try to get a car without a down payment the salesman will laugh and kick you and family out the dealership. Sedan seat 5 people what the hell weed you be smoking search and Toyota Corolla or Volkswagen sedan on Google it will seat 5 people even with a baby sear.

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