I know Joe will get the blame for this but does anyone think low inflation for 20 years was sustainable? Can you break down your reasoning for me?

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Love this topic and it’s been a wild ride since that Powell presentation 14 months ago. Paraphrased theme of the speech is below:

“In order to achieve target inflation of 2% on average, we’re gonna have to be above average for some time…”

Since then, It’s been like riding a rodeo bull and trying not to get bucked off.

The trust was in J Pow with loose fiscal policy last year, then the speech helped open more flood gates, and they’re starting to turn off the faucet and now it’s just getting a little bumpy for the individual. We’ll see how it turns out!

Ok… so first point that’s important:

We had lower than our target inflation for so long, but the fed target was always 2% annual inflation. We undershot consistently for years (as shown by your pic).

Powell revised that target to be “average inflation of 2% over the long-term.” In order to achieve average of 2%, we will need a period of being above 2%… the question is just how long, how much over, etc.

Second point:

Powell and the Fed defended this decision by saying that because interest rates were already so low, the FRB only has one weapon to handle a crisis which was to flood the system with cash (like all the SBA grants, PBB loans, stimulus checks, etc.) from last year.

The theory is that if inflation is allowed to run rampant for a bit, they can raise interest rates to a more typical level.

By raising the interest rates, they will get a second (trusty) weapon back in the arsenal for the next crisis. They’ll be able to lower interest rates to spur economic activity and won’t have to rely on cash infusion.

Third point:

This is why real estate has had such a run up over the last year. Free access to money enable making the down payment, low rates were available and it’s unclear on how soon they’d increase, and real estate as an asset class is a better use of capital in a high-inflation environment than leaving it in savings

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I miss donald trump.

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LOL

Jfc

2% is the target inflation rate

SA1 - think you meant “long term average of 2%”

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