{ "media_type": "text", "post_content": "I was looking into the # of covid cases and it looks like the number of cases due to the delta variant is at the same level as March of 2020. Do you think it is a sign of upcoming market downturn? Being cash heavy would be a good idea?", "post_id": "61093829bc562c001c201e61", "reply_count": 8, "vote_count": 2, "bowl_id": "5acc42208c6b52001375e11e", "bowl_name": "Option Traders & Investing" }

I was looking into the # of covid cases and it looks like the number of cases due to the delta variant is at the same level as March of 2020. Do you think it is a sign of upcoming market downturn? Being cash heavy would be a good idea?

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Someone correct me but the March 2020 crash was due to liquidity crisis. Currently market has pretty liquid, looking at the reverse repo activity. So we might have some red days but may not have the “big crash” as dip buyers come in.

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OP - while that *could* happen, the impact would take months to play out. Would you really want to sit on cash and watch the market churn higher because you have a bearish bias? Only times I go cash heavy are when I am uncertain the direction of the market and I need to reset / find new opportunities. Its usually not for more than a week or two.

I doubt a 25% crash or whatever March 2020 was. Back then it was "fear of the unknown" and there was no telling how bad things would get. Now that we have been through the ringer once, it likely won't get that bad again and the cases now are less severe (for those vaccinated). I'm expecting a 5%-10% pullback in the coming weeks, but I am still playing long swings while I can. I have my LT positions on that I wont touch, but any option swing is a short few day trade.

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No, remember last year was we saw hospitalizations and deaths. This time around you’ll see cases increasing but hospitalizations and deaths stagnant if not decreasing in some areas. That shows that although vaccinated people can get covid (which was already known in the vaccine trials) the chances that they are hospitalized and/or die is fairly rare. If you are vaccinated you’ll likely only have mild to no symptoms. Long answer to your question is no. There isn’t that type uncertainty anymore. There won’t be shutdowns. It’s kind of under control.

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80% equities 20% cash

Last year was a black swan event with so many unknowns. This year we know so much more. Vaccines, more idea on how virus works/spreads, what companies are reacting, etc etc.

LoL. Market never cared for people dying. Otherwise it would not have recovered in last summer. No one either WS or retail seems to care about rising numbers. This has been case since last fall

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