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Lower than expected returns. Higher than expected spend.
Divorce, illness…
Coach
Caring for an elderly loved relative who mismanaged their assets.
Tied up money in retirement vehicles that are hard to access before older date
Coach
10k is a lot to invest per month. Income vs. Spending?
How much of the 3.7 is actually liquid / not retirement?
Subject Expert
It probably will work (approximately).
Of course the returns of the market over hlthe next ten years are unknowable and may be lower or higher than 7% real (history suggests probably lower).
You may want to spend more than $108k a year including taxes; how much do you spend now? Are there things you are not accounting for, like health insurance, children, children's college, parents, long term care, retirement-specific expenses like golf or whatnot?
You may or may not be able to save $10k a month, since careers fluctuate. You may save somewhat less, or a lot less, or even more.
It may not be exactly ten years, but if you keep saving a large percentage of your income into buying and holding total market index funds, you are very likely to be able to retire comfortably at a relatively young age. :)
Health insurance is a big one. My SO are planning to retire in early 40s (next 5 years) and have priced health insurance and it is a lot, and the available plans are also not near as good as our employer plans so the expenses would be higher if something happened to us.
I’m at under 80 k spend a year before taxes
Subject Expert
It might work - if it doesn’t here’s why:
- 7% real return is high, about 50% chance that returns will be worse than this, perhaps significantly.
- Lifestyle inflation
- Taxes
- Kids
- illness
- Health insurance.
- Divorce
- Job loss.