Spouse and I are low 30s at $1M NW, all liquid (own home but next to zero equity) split between 401ks, Roth IRAs, Brokerage. In 10 years at 7% growth (10% growth - 3% inflation), if we contribute $10k per month, we’ll hit $3.7M NW in the accounts above. Safe withdrawal rate of 3% will give us $9k per month, which is greater than our monthly expenses. Assume no kids. Why won’t this work?

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Lower than expected returns. Higher than expected spend.

Divorce, illness…

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Caring for an elderly loved relative who mismanaged their assets.

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Tied up money in retirement vehicles that are hard to access before older date

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10k is a lot to invest per month. Income vs. Spending?

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How much of the 3.7 is actually liquid / not retirement?

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It probably will work (approximately).

Of course the returns of the market over hlthe next ten years are unknowable and may be lower or higher than 7% real (history suggests probably lower).

You may want to spend more than $108k a year including taxes; how much do you spend now? Are there things you are not accounting for, like health insurance, children, children's college, parents, long term care, retirement-specific expenses like golf or whatnot?

You may or may not be able to save $10k a month, since careers fluctuate. You may save somewhat less, or a lot less, or even more.

It may not be exactly ten years, but if you keep saving a large percentage of your income into buying and holding total market index funds, you are very likely to be able to retire comfortably at a relatively young age. :)

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Health insurance is a big one. My SO are planning to retire in early 40s (next 5 years) and have priced health insurance and it is a lot, and the available plans are also not near as good as our employer plans so the expenses would be higher if something happened to us.

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I’m at under 80 k spend a year before taxes

It might work - if it doesn’t here’s why:

- 7% real return is high, about 50% chance that returns will be worse than this, perhaps significantly.
- Lifestyle inflation
- Taxes
- Kids
- illness
- Health insurance.
- Divorce
- Job loss.

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