Unpopular opinion on flattening the curve: ok we all know we need to extend the tail at the end... how bout that tail at the beginning? I mean I'm in a midwest city where cases are hardly [cont]

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Like EY said, it’s been circulating, it’s just been circulating in the hotspots longer. What’s it’s like in the hot spots now is very likely what it will be like in most areas in a couple weeks. The places that are already hotspots are likely going to be in an even worse situation (ie New York). There is a lag from the time of infection, to symptoms, to critical condition or death. During that time, the virus is still spreading. That means if you wait until it’s bad, you’re three weeks too late and will continue to see it worsening for a significant period of time. China locked down in mid to end of January and cases peaked mid February. Italy has been locked down for a little bit now (close to a month in the northern region) today’s new cases were more than 1/8 of total cases. They have 5x more cases and 7x as many deaths as when they first locked down, and the lockdown is going to be extended. That is exactly what happens when you wait until it’s bad. It is very clear right now that it has spread everywhere, so there really isn’t as safe area anymore.

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[Cont] ... even here yet, but schools are already shut down. I mean we're gonna be so far behind, as other places start to open up, we'll just be starting to worry about hospital overcrowding! I guess we hope for a cure or vaccine so pushing the curve down the road will also be effective?

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FYI: you might not be as far behind as you think. There’s no broad community testing in place currently to know where you exactly are. Also many infected are asymptomatic.

Fair points. However, the reason we should do a quarantine ASAP was bc of lessons we learned from Italy. When they only had a few cases they were nonchalant about it and continued as normal. This meant the virus was just circulating around the whole population even when most people weren’t showing symptoms. So quarantining early is the best strategy for now

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Even more unpopular opinion, maybe. How bout an old rich person pays a medical facility for a bed with a ventilator in a city that is not yet populated, and is given the virus and receives proper care? I mean parents did this with chicken pox all the time, it helped to plan for the misery. Flame away! 🔥🔥🔥🔥

Hmm not sure it tracks that immunity against one form of the virus would give you cover on the other. Biological systems often care about the 3D shape of things. In fact, I believe chirality was implicated in some morning sickness drug in the 70s that resulted in children being born with deformed limbs.

As someone living in NYC I’d say it escalated really quickly and shutting things down earlier is better than later.

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