Watched the Money Guy Show on YT episode: “The truth about Fire” - their calc is (cash flow needed / SWR at retirement) x (1+rate of inflation)^no. of years to get to goal

All calcs that I had done previously for Fire projections leveraged formula: estimated annual expenses / withdrawal rate

My Fire Projection went from $4.3m > $7.3m! Do others include inflation in their projections and were my original calcs way off?? New to FIRE and now feeling overwhelmed at this difference.

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The SWR in theory accounts for inflation. Your other formula is likely double counting inflation

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Excellent - thank you!!

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I think the formula works but for my projections I use current dollars and then an inflation adjusted return (for example 8% less 3% inflation use 5%) which is simpler.

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Okay perfect - was using 6% for returns estimate so I think I was just viewing everything in today’s dollars

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The (1+rate of inflation)^years to goal part is scaling numbers from today's dollars to dollars in your FIRE year. The value is the same, it's just adjusting for what you you expect the numbers to look like in however many years. If that makes sense.

I use a similar technique, but I scale back to a base year (2019 dollars for me) using the government measured inflation numbers so I can compare my progress to may plan.

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Thank you - great reminder to track progress to plan post FIRE too

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$7.3M is a nominal number in future dollar value (vs your original estimate in 2026 dollar value). You might need $7.3M in 2046 dollars, for example. It’s all the same as long as your timeline to FIRE at $4.3M was already assuming real (not nominal) returns.

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You guys got it covered.

It’s very difficult to visualize what nominal dollars will be worth in 20+ years time, and It’s simpler to just work in real dollars.
Though it does mean your target will increase slightly every year.

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