What are the odds of a government shutdown?

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74% according to polymarket

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Odds feel relatively high. Schumer probably can't cave without either getting something or at least triggering a shutdown this time. At least, he can't if he wants to keep his spot as Senate minority leader, it seems.

At the same time, the Republicans aren't even meeting with the Democrats. Johnson has also recessed the House until after October 1st, so, even if the Senate passed an amended CR, the House wouldn't be there to pass it themselves. Given all the brinkmanship, it seems unlikely we're going to dodge this bullet.

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But the GOP now refuses to meet with their constituents so lots of free time

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Schumer/Jeffries should make any support from Democrats contingent on release of the full and unredacted Epstein documentation.

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We need the Bailey’s to tell Schumer to GTFO

Everyday is a f’ing joke

https://apple.news/AXN--ZQJaQYOjVfd4nHbtrA

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How does the shutdown affect contractors?

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Threat of shut down 100%
Actual shut down maybe 5% at most

Schumer took so much heat last time, it adds some unpredictability. There is also a lot of pressure not to shut down. I think trump is a jerk but he has a sense of knowing when to apply more pressure and doesn’t really care about consequences. I’d guess 65/35 toward no shut-down but it will be last minute for sure.

They would pass the bill/additional funding at last min /midnight and avoid shutdown

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