What do we think will happen over the next 3-5 years for large firms (think AMLAW50-100) that are continuing to fall behind on bonus/comp? Mergers? Organic growth? Organic retraction? Seems like a very tenuous spot for a lot of these firms.

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Probably muddle along as they always have

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What I'm seeing from my vantage point, nearly every firm with 200-800 attorneys are looking to aggressively grow when most have never really done it. They don't want to be prone to departures and need scale in order to grow profits and offer a competitive platform. Many of these firms will not be able to do it and if they fail they are a couple of massive losses away from being in merger talks. Those 800+ attorneys are looking to grow but really what they are trying to do is boost profits by dropping lower rate practices and buying large books of business. These are also firms that would likely want to acquire a smaller firm in order to build out depth in higher rate areas. In short, there is lots of convergence between these paths as larger firms lose lower rate talent that end up at these smaller firms looking to scale and the smaller firms that don't scale will likely merge with the larger firms that can't attract big books of business. Of course lots of firms that aren't focused on profits and have a partnership that thinks along the same lines will probably just muddle thru as long as they can

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I feel as though firms are in for a reckoning. Partners now are making so much money and billable rates are nuts. I think a lot of the smaller firms will either merge or fail

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Many partners at many of those smaller firms in the 50-100 range make less then senior associates at market firms. These firms often pay first years market then not much growth from there, with partner comp being largely eat what you kill. The billable hour rate of those partners is also less than senior associate rates at the top firms.

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This sounds like McGuireWoods who has publicly begged for a merger partner

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