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What org are you in?
How do you plan to do up without your manager's support?
yeah this seems a little dicey :/
Yeah, that's going to be tricky. It does sound unfair and unprofessional to say I am not going to give you a raise because it probably won't get approved anyway.
Might speak to HR and ask some sort of general question about promotions and the rules surrounding to see if you can trap her in a lie.
It is probably dependent on the team and the need at this time. What makes you think your manager is lying? That's a bold assumption.
Does that data on your org reflect more specific data about your team or cohort? It sounds like a broad assumption to make based on one metric, rather than just asking your manager for more clarity
I agree, i think sticking with an honest convo would be better than relying on blind data