What are people's general expected tax rates when they FIRE? I'm struggling to model it out, but say I retired with $5M-$10M in financial assets (interest, dividends, capital gains) at a 3% withdrawl rate from brokerage IRAs, 401(k)s. Also, I'd consider maybe a lower-stress job just for health insurance purposes, so that would be W-2 income.

I know it's highly person-specific, but generally, what's a good heuristic number to use? A lot of models seem very low (e.g., 7% retirement tax rate).

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These days depending on what state you live in you would need to start factoring in what a wealth tax would look like or an unrealized gains tax as well. Because 10 years away from work and bam, it could be a life changing event.

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It depends to a huge extent whether you are taking distributions from Pre-tax, post-tax IRA, or brokerage.

Pre-tax will be taxed as income.
Post IRA will be zero tax
Brokerage would be capital gains rate on the profit.
Lower stress job would obviously also be taxed as income.

Estimate this breakdown then calculate your tax on that.

7% sounds too low for you, unless you have a lot in brokerage / post tax IRA

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Agree. If your burn is less than 100k/yr, your MFJ, and you have sufficient brokerage assets, you could be paying 0% (at least federal) capital gains.

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Not repeating the point that the account mix matters a ton. But it is good to know that your long-term capital gains rate (on a brokerage account) when income is relatively low is ZERO (up to around $150K in household income). So if you withdraw $300K from your brokerage account with half of that being principal and half gains — then your federal tax rate is ZERO. Learning this blew my mind.

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You can pay 0% in federal long-term capital gains tax if your taxable income falls below specific thresholds: $48,350 for single filers or $96,700 for married filing jointly in 2025. This has no impact on State taxes.
In 2026, this is up a bit Single $49,450, Married Filing Jointly $98,900.

Sounds like you could do with a more granular model, with specific amounts, then check tax brackets and rules based on your withdrawals. If you give AI your expenses and have details on different accounts to as well as the tax rules and brackets, it may be able to give you an account sequence and tax level. You have to check everything carefully. Sometimes it gets 5 -10 % of the issue wrong, and the prompt has to be well thought out too.

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I plan for 33% (including state) as I'm anticipating doing a number of years worth of Roth IRA conversions (I have a few million to convert, most of which is a partial pension distribution) while I'm still in my 50s. Once I'm in 60s, should drop to 25% due to smaller conversions and starting to tap into investment account capital gains. I am expecting tax rates to be higher with the next president, so I'm trying to front load conversions.

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The best heuristic you will come up with is to make some simple projections for your case and see what you come up with. There really isn't a general case.

How much would you have in taxable vs Roth vs traditional? How much of your taxable is basis? How much are you spending? When would you retire?

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Borrow this book from the library or buy it- seriously the most comprehensive guide out there for tax planning for early retirement. Depending on withdrawal rate and from where, your effective tax rate could be anywhere from 5-25%.

https://a.co/d/0if3BumW Cody Garrett tax planning in case the link doesn’t work.

Once you know what you want to withdraw, run your numbers through the tax calculator at dinytown.net

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I tried to post the link and fb flagged it as moderated text… no idea why….. Search for dinkytown tax calculator.

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