Where is the industry going?

In 10 years, how will the traditional shops be doing vs. the consultancy’s vs. the in-house agencies vs. the PR firms vs. prod co’s vs. all the small specialized shops.

I am fearful of making any kind of serious predictions but I think the most ideal situation, and the one that I think we will see more of a shift towards is this: organizations will recruit agency-experienced project managers who are adept at working with many discipline-specific agencies. I think the full-service agency is not really a good thing; when you look at the history of tools and products, the most successful, utilitarian and economic elements are those that do things extremely well in a given vertical: the digital agency, digital media and marketing agency, design and branding agency, PR and GPA agencies, production agencies, research agencies, etc. Some of these might be in the form of freelancers and consultants, others might be offshore labor, in-house teams or even non-agency collectives. Agility is key in this new market economy, and large agencies are very slow and don’t adapt well to change, are bureaucratic-laden, costly and don’t always capture top talent across all business areas. In short, I don’t think it’s one thing, but a movement to many things with the full-service agency left in the dust

We are merging a slew of different offerings and it just feels so fucking messy right now. There’s a lot of differing styles and specialties that aren’t used to operating the same way. Following. Interested to hear what others have to say here.

New to the game, student of life. And the way how things are looking, I'd say it's going to be a competition for "why should I hire this expensive shop to do something this kid in Alaska can do from watching tutorials" or "Why should I hire this big shop when UPS can design an app for me".. it seems like everyone's a designer, writer, producer etc. in today's age.

All in house. Few agency conglomerates

We're all dead. Wpp stock is in the tank and we don't seem to think that we need to adjust our model at all. We are rife for disruption. Someone please bring the sweet release of death.

I don't think anyone can make an accurate prediction about that, but all the money will be in being the loudest opinion who thinks they know.

Like many others, I see that we are in the midst of a messy transition from what was to what will be. The evolution of the holding company over the past 30 years was a reaction to the fact that most standalone full service major shops were increasingly less viable as independent businesses. And now we are going through another metamorphosis. The skills to do marketing communications work, in all areas, were once “magic” - but are now broadly understood and available in the market (art direction, writing, video production, digital design, strategic planning, media, social, data analytics, etc.). Everybody can be in some piece of the “idea” business these days — and is.

Clients will have to and want to move fast & efficiently. As such, I suspect in-house coordination and leadership will play an increasingly significant role. The fact that P&G has over 100 seed programs going to face the new world of Direct To Consumer (Dollar Shave, Harry’s, etc), and has Brand Managers buying media like Silicon Valley entrepreneurs tells you a lot.

Beyond this, I see the scenario painted by Junior Designer 1 as what it will look like on the lower end and what Director of Digital Services 1 outlines on the higher end.

There will always be room for the “gifted independent exception” (e.g., W&K) — as long as they remain legitimately special, and not working off the glories of previous generations — which is what happened to most of the legacy full service shops.

The evolution of technology & data has not diminished creativity, but it has allowed a more precise understanding of targeting, messaging, and operation/marketing integration, so consultancies will have their space with their communications arms.

The drive for cost control, administrative overhead reduction, etc. will not relent.

There will be plenty of “jobs”, but creating a legit and sustainable career will be tougher. Not impossible, but certainly more challenging.

Aren’t we cruising for another recession? It’ll probably look a bit like 2008, maybe not as dire Get whatever work you can, wherever you can, from whomever you can. This goes for agencies AND talent.

The Big Holding companies are already feeling the pressure- it’s all about shareholder wealth at the cost of premium talent and agility. Designer boutique shops will be the next model.

Holding company behemoths tend to elevate top talent to such lofty positions that they hardly touch the work anymore. That’s an issue that savvy clients realize and that start-ups, boutiques, in-house and project-driven shops can address. Big does not equal good.

“How big until we get bad" is an old industry saying that will always hold true. Scale dilutes talent. Simple fact many businesses face.

Holding companies may want to believe every cheap kid with an instagram account and ad school portfolio is capable of producing A-list brand work. Lol. Mentorship and leadership is key. And when that person is six layers and twelve time zones away sipping champagne poolside at an awards boondoggle, you get quality control issues. And, “wtf are we paying you all this money for” issues

Thus you get companies going in-house and forming We Are Unlimiteds, Innocean and the like. And also doing jump-balls for big launches and projects. Smart companies are always trying to balance scale vs. talent. For better or for worse (it obviously takes a sharp client to really make it work). This trend will likely continue into the future. Then, eventually, we all die. That one’s for sure.

Because very few clients see the value in good creative, I’d say the big agency model is on life support.

The future belongs to the brave. - Bernbach

All the broker models are dead. Agency broker - Agency between brands and media. Stock broker - between stock exchanges and retail buyers. Property broker between homes and buyers .. broker between taxis and passengers the list goes on. In the future brokers go broke.

What will the model be or will it still be a chaotic search for a sustainable new model like it is now?

We will continue to see the decline of a “one size fits all” agency and still see the rise of the independent, specialized shops.

I actually 100% agree with DDS1 when it comes to long term (10-15 years at the earliest). Full respect but when it comes to shorter term (5-10) I personally think the shift is, for now, heading the opposite direction. Take Publicis, Omnicom, Havas (& I’m sure the others) have all essentially shifted their “core offering” (aka ideal client buy in) to be back in line with the full service model, but at a holding company level though. This includes eliminating overlaps when consolidating companies and pinching pennies by removing positions that someone else could also take on (by making someone work longer hours of course). This is a reversal of the holding company model of the 90s when “Un-Bundleing” was the trend. Right now agencies are trying to out skirt the consultancies by bundling to become more general marketing consultants (look at any high profile business wins lately - eg. McDonalds, GSK, Mercedes Benz - it’s all client driven).

Basically it ebbs and flows. Right now we’re in a period of Bundleing/consolidating. Granted it’s not a sustainable model & short term profits will continue to erode the value of large corporations for now, but it’s the same problem client side.

Long term, it’s almost impossible to say. Think of the post office model in 2000. A seemingly industry proof business that, while still maintaining dominance in the market, is rapidly loosing share to competitors because the new companies can adapt faster (approval from 4 people = quicker than 40).

Clients are terrified, but also don’t trust us. So they’re all just desperately making blind changes in the hopes something works. The big brands want an agency that does work that helps their business and finds way to cut production costs. I think it means the most nimble agencies will win out. If you can make scrappy work that moves the needle AND help them strategically, you’re in a good spot. Most holding companies are big, slow and expensive (but not as big, slow and expensive as their clients). That’s why they’re failing

Hope for the future: media agencies couple back with ad agencies. What could happen in the future: more production agencies form and fully de-couple from ad agencies. If that happens, I hope production agencies get absorbed in media. Not hating on media, but decoupling really screwed us. Thoughts?

@Senior Producer 2...indeed, unbundling in the 90’s ultimately led to the free for all in idea development & production agencies that we see today, but it was inevitable. There is a rebuilding going on now, but it will be different than the monolithic legacy shops model of the 1950’s-1990’s. What has been lost, however, is a bigger sense of “it’s OUR account”. Agency folks today don’t have the bigger sense of family or account ownership. But, the employees of Universal Pictures don’t have the sense of family or ownership that the ones in the 1940’s had, when studios were a total end to end development, production, and distribution concept. Industries grow, then split, then re-combine in different ways. Telecommunications is the same thing. Today’s AT&T is not at all like the one of the 1970’s when it was the fully integrated Bell System.