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Best computer monitor for a small desk?
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What IS your life situation? Got a mortgage and kids? Take the higher base and stability. Young with low expenses and willing to roll the dice? Chase the upside. I'd personally choose the big earning potential right now if I truly believed in it, but I've got the luxury of not having many responsibilities. If I did, I'd have to think differently.
It all comes down to risk management and how you see your risk profile. If you're young and can be nimble with your finances, shooting for the lower base with lots of upside may be the better option. If you need some stability in your financial life, the higher base will give you that. Consider the risk and how you'd manage if things went wrong, and go from there.