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That is really tough. Not sure what to do but here are a couple things to consider.
1) if you renege on the state court judge, and the federal judge finds out, the federal judge might not be happy about that (not sure if they’d rescind your offer, but at least something I’d consider).
2) if you do end up getting an offer from the federal judge you could consider asking if you could start the following year given that you’ve already accepted an offer (if you want to clerk for 2 years).
No question the Fed clerkship would be far better for career prospects, but it would be very awkward to renege for a more prestigious job.
I’m fairly sure the reason I was in contention for the appellate clerkship is because someone dropped out. This judge typically hires very far in advance and is considered a feeder
I would take the COA position if it's there. Have an honest conversation with your state court judge and say that you would love to possibly defer that position till after the COA clerkship. You never know, if may turn out good.
Have you interviewed for both? I would not go to the interview with the circuit judge after having accepted the state court position if you were only just invited for an interview with the circuit judge. If you have already interviewed for both, and the circuit judge offers you the job, I would talk to the state court judge and explain the situation. They might offer you an out without you even requesting it. Or they will let you know they have strong feelings that you stick with your initial commitment to them. Then you have to make the more difficult choice of what to do.