I love real estate, but the numbers just arent making sense anymore. See hypothetical scenario’s below.

Option 1: Hold 250k property for 15years, 62.5k total investment (20% down, 5% costs+fees)
Future Value: 389K (conservative 3% appreciation, 15 years)
-Remaining balance after 15 years at 6%: 145K
-Selling costs/commissions: 27.2K (7% assuming)
-Capital gains tax: 20.9K (15% on 139K of gains)
Total future value of 62.5k investment = 196K (cash flow not included)

*Option 2 in comments

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What if the property appreciates at 5%? Or has positive cash flow?

likesmart

You need somewhere to live. So you need to factor in your opportunity cost over 15 years for rising rent,ability to deduct mortgage interest, etc.

I agree, I chose to sell my property and rent.

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Who are you talking to? Shouldn't be doing what?

Real estate has options to defer or offset capital gains. Plus you get nearly tax free cashflow on an annual basis.

There are also scenarios where real estate might inflate rapidly in a short period of time. It happened in many markets in 2020. You don’t put those into the equation, but when they happen, it’s a bonus.

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Option 2: 62.5K into S&P500
Future Value: 261K (15 years at 10% compounded)
-Capital gains tax: 29.7K
Total future value of initial 62.5k investment = 231K

S&P500 is the clear winner here, especially considering the minimal stress factor compared to real estate.

Am I missing something?

Yes, you are missing the cash flow, lol. Banking on straight appreciation is never going to work out in real estate investing. Multiple family properties, at least 3 family to reduce overhead, in up and coming areas. Not sure if you are including dividends in your compounding calc for S&P500 calc, but you need to consider earnings for both. It might be differentiating. The other aspect of course is diversification. If a recession hits, there will be more renters.

You’re also not factoring in upkeep for that property.

Yeah, but I think assuming upkeep = cash flow is a very arbitrary assumption.

1031 exchange

There is something to be said about having a physical property. Yes there is constant up keep but you have a finite asset that has intrinsic value. A stock is just vapor. An index might be more stable than an individual stock but you have little influence on how the asset performs. With a physical property you can decide to put in sweat equity, you can decide how to do repairs, you can decide who to rent to, you can decide the rate based on conditions. You are still subject to what a city, state or county might do but more variables are in your control.

Properties also make more sense when you can build up a portfolio of houses or multi-unit properties. Then you can be less impacted by vacancies and bad renters.

How are you justifying making 10% on the stock market and only 3% on real estate?

Yes, there housing market is flat or falling in some metros right now, but historically, housing tends to average a bit higher than inflation, because growing population always pushes on the demand side, while never ending new regulations limit the supply.

The logic was based on historical stock market returns and conservative real estate returns. But yes this does give more hope for upside in real estate.

There are much more dynamic factors to consider (ROE, liquid cash flow, tax benefits, 1031 exch), however you would think the 1:1 comparison would be much more in favor of real estate on the surface level either way.

Half of all real estate will increase faster than the average. It’s not hard to find those markets or submarkets. Plus 3% is incredibly low for the last 30 years.

Plus that doesn’t include value add, which I think most real estate investors will target.

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