I predict SHARP economic pullback in 2-6 months. Does anyone else agree?

AI is a bubble. Tariffs are now averaging 18%. We see early signs of inflation, BUT will take another 2-4 months to see indicators move materially. Another month or so for Fed reaction to get baked in.....this is not good.

likesmart
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I have no idea about what is going to happen. No offense, but neither do you.

likefunny

What’s the saying, economists have predicted 10 of the last 2 recessions?

There was a WSJ article on economist predictions, and literally 60% thought we were due for a recession in 2022-2023 (didn’t happen). In 2018, 75% of people thought there’d be one (didn’t happen).

like

Absolutely, if you’re trying to time the market you’re going to lose a lot of money, that being said by any reasonable metric we’re way overdue

I think it’s easy to be a pessimist and doom scroll. You likely don’t need encouragement.

likefunny

Our country is going in the wrong direction based on real metrics.

Propaganda is coming from the WH and is exacerbated in the media and in social media. Our addiction to social media is only making ppl dumber, not smarter and other hostile countries are laughing their assess off over Americans willingness to believe whatever shows up on their pre programmed algorithmic feed as well as their lack of critical thinking skills which Is what Americans are known for right now as the world watches us.

funnylike

Are you meaning to be the example you speak of? lol

like

Considering the current administrations focus on driving volatility (for their own benefit…), who knows?

like

If there is a pullback it won't last long because retail is now loving dip buying.

like

I agree. I am very concerned about our country in the near future

likehelpful

As an Illinois "Teacher", you should be lol

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I am pretty sure we are seeing pullback now. I work in an industry that can pretty well predict economic downturns and we are already seeing decreased revenue and we’re having to pull back on spending.

like

Sorry, seeing early signs of inflation? When didn’t stop to start again? Asking for a friend…

like

Don’t worry once the fed terms up in 2026 and the admin can install a new head and all the data can be made up I’m sure everything will look a lot better.

likeuplifting

Let's MFGA: Make the Fed Great Again!

I don't think so and the BOFA Anylist don't think it will either so why the worry doom and gloom? What's giving you this interpretation of the data?

like

Is seeing a decrease in inflation also considered early signs of inflation?

Yes, but there's been no response to all our comments.

My financial advisor and his staff at a large firm predicted the great recession 5 years before it was officially declared. He laid off staff in 2004-2006 to prepare. There is a small difference between knowing its coming and the official declaration. Its always delayed. I don't know what metrics the government uses but in the financial field, the analyze, and then act decisively when the proof is definitive, no need for the official pronouncement.

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