Predictions for Big Law layoffs? When will layoffs start and how many people will be impacted? What practice groups/ industries will be most significantly impacted? Venture capital and Bay Area?

likehelpful
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I lived through '08 Lathaming. If you are a competent associate with a partner who has your back, you should feel ok. Clients are racing to get funding while the spigots are still sort of on. M&A is very hard when it is difficult to value companies, but once there are bargains to be had, later in the cycle, companies sitting on cash are OK. Also later in the cycle, layoffs and dissolving companies takes work. There will be a lot of L&E work.

Very expensive sr associates, counsel and those up for partner should worry. Hours hoarding by Srs and midlevels will happen. Closed doors will be common where people whisper and worry; general anxiety will be palpable.

Some juniors who "don't get it" will be laid off very early. Incoming Fall classes may be delayed or no-offered. If I were a 3L, I'd max my financial aid because no telling when your actual start date will truly be.

Deadwood, troublemakers, newer laterals who don't have political capital should know they are first on the block.

Be sunny, save aggressively, trim expenses and do good work. That's all you can do. And if sr mgmt says there won't be layoffs--don't trust them. They don't really know yet. Google Bob Dell and layoffs. Be promised there'd be none when stealth layoffs were underway already and then mass layoffs, including firing a substantial portion of the 1st year class, happened mere months later.

likeupliftinghelpful

Correct. I also think the Cravaths of the world increasing salaries puts a real target on underproductive associates’ backs. I was in favor of our firm moving up the scale to retain and recruit talent but it always amazed me to hear of associates waiting for the next raise as if the capital stack was unlimited. Note it may not make much of a difference to the Kirkland’s and Lathams of the world but to my AmLaw 100 firm, it really puts a crunch on things... and there are consequences when shit hits the fan like it is now.

likehelpful

Precisely. To answer the previous Q- no, but it would be naive to think that firms won’t be considering it if this continues for more than 2-3 months.

helpful

All lawyers in NY and CA for sure. No way to maintain that big salary in this climate.

likesmart

Somewhat correct. See below. The cast majority of ASSOCIATES will be cut though. As they are the first line.

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