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I can speak to the Seattle market since I’m both buying and selling.
There is pent up demand and limited supply.
With companies vesting schedules there is a massive influx of capital.
So the market here isn’t where it was in 2017 but it remains a sellers market.
I agree it is local.
Austin, Boston and SF all seem to be strong.
I just bought a house, AMA.
Honestly, though, if you can, now is a good a decent time to grab a great rate. I don’t know that I’d be starting my home search this second if I was some combination of single/without kids/didn’t have a place in mind/am still early in my career, etc. For my wife and I, though, we are none of those things: we are expecting #2 this fall and it has been quite compact in our city condo during COVID. Bought in an area we had discussed for years, got a decent price (but still well within budget), a better rate, and pulled the trigger.
The one piece of the macro picture I’m not solid on is the 20M people out of work, and the potential for one/both of us to lose our jobs due to softening of the economy. But that concern won’t go away regardless of where we live, so my rationale is that if we exhaust our 12 month emergency fund with both of us unemployed (aka worst case scenario), then I’d rather the Sheriff kick us out of this new house than our tiny condo that we’ve outgrown.
We’ve prepared as best as could be expected; I’m sure there are others in the market who haven’t. So it goes.
Source: the analysis
Team* analysis, expert interviews. Legitimately listed as sources on our slides...
They need somewhere to live?
Based on what analysis? It’s very much a seller’s market right now with so little supply available and tons of demand.
I feel like location is very relevant. Probably great sellers market anywhere outside of NYC
People who think that they can time the market 🤡 🤡
I want out of a smaller house that has a much higher mortgage.
I’m getting a bigger house for 65% the cost of my current one. It is much further from my office but I’m definitely not going back this year and I don’t expect to return to any kind of normalcy until 2022.
I’ll deal with renting a place in the city as a worst case but getting out of both a high cost home and Seattle is worthwhile
Define crash? Anyone expecting it to be like 2009 again is going to be disappointed.
There’s pent up demand in the Midwest as well. Sellers aren’t selling because of job uncertainty and the associated risks. Plus who needs the disruption of moving when you’re basically working from home? Most will not do this unless it is absolutely necessary or some great benefit gained. Also, the boom in refinances are another indication that many aren’t moving too soon. We just closed at 2.75% for a 30-year fixed ourselves.
I’d keep an eye on pre-foreclosures rising eventually. There are owners who deferred payments that will have balloons due at the end of that forbearance. Some will overcome this, others won’t. Then you have landlords dealing with tenants that aren’t paying that can’t get evicted due to current protections in place. The longer this goes on, the more likely you’ll have landlords who will need to sell, but no one will want a property with a non-paying tenant.
That said, real estate is locally driven. It may not make sense to buy in one area, but definitely in others. Watch for where the Facebook, Twitter, and similar employees move now that they can work from home permanently (at least for now).
All the analysis I’ve seen says steady and persistently high prices through 2021 due to low mortgage rates, high demand and low supply. The only analysis I’ve seen for a contraction is *at most* a 2% price decline in some areas only.
There’s no crash coming. If you need a place to live and have the funds, buy now while rates are low.
Same in Northern VA and DC. Highest prices on record. Inventory flying off the shelf. More expensive, over 700k, also selling like it is the best deal ever.
2.625% 30 year fixed, no points can’t beat that
@Chief CS 830+ and to add it was a VA loan 585k
What analyis?
The analysis
This is so dumb. Even in 2009 only certain markets' housing crashed. A lot of cities were unaffected.
C1 housing market. Stock market is another thing that doesn't even correlate much with the housing market.
Housing catches up a little late. Give it until late 2020 or early 2021
I’m in Toronto and there’s definitely a drop here in rent and house prices but it’s more a correction not a crash. Having said that I also think it’s crazy that people are jumping to buy right away cause I think we still haven’t seen the full economic impact of Covid yet
I’m a renter and I’ve seen most downtown rents go down by 100-300$ a month for 2 bdr both for condos and townhouses.
In terms of house prices I’m not as in tune but from news articles there seems like a projected drop.
Because they need a place to live
This got me curious... What are the main reasons behind a housing market crash?
Tampa isn’t slow at all yet. But it’s much less tourist dependent than Orlando.
Chief
I wish the market would crash but don’t expect it to
OP, can you please share the basis of the statement you made about a housing market crash, as if it were a fact?
3.1% interest rate + good pricing doesn’t last long.
Housing market is still a sellers market but interest rate has gone down. I was able to refinance for 2.5 % for 15 years.
Me too. Just closed this evening.