What realistic % salary increase is it a no brainer to switch companies?

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Switching companies are very subjective to the work you're having currently and expecting to work upon something specific.
Although many of them are switching just like anything these days, you may decide that upon whether you are satisfied with your work, WLB, compensation & benefits, etc.
If so, no need to even think about doing what most of others are doing.
Similar is the case with hike %. It very relative to your tech stack, company and their budget.
These days a minimum of 60% could be something to start off with, and with counter offers you could reach even 200-250% or maybe upto a compensation of 4-4.5 times that of your experience.
Btw, luck also plays a hidden and major role here.😉

Lmao. If you are jumping for 4x, you waited too long.

I always aim for 33%.

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