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Considering $15-25k increase in salary, but double the number of work hours, is it worth reapplying to Bain next year or better to wait to apply until after business school?
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I would. It has nothing to do with a lack of loyalty either, it's just self-preservation. Freezing promotions and "budget constraints" are ominous signs. Not 100% guaranteed that layoffs follow, but you're delusional if you don't think it's a legitimate possibility. It is. If you can get out of there, I would absolutely do so.
Has anyone seen a company come back from a long freeze without too many casualties? It’s just so hard to say what is coming. I like to get out before things get bad.
Sure, I've been in several companies that have had significant freezes and then recovered nicely. Still, it is worthwhile to keep your eyes open for other opportunities.
There's nothing wrong with looking for something new while you are employed. Even if everything is great, you should keep in touch with a recruiter or two, just to stay aware of what is happening in the market. If something better comes along, there is nothing wrong with taking it. Just be sure to evaluate what "better" actually means.